Although the 100% penetration level was reached in Q1 of this year, mobile growth has not slowed to any great extent and in fact, the third quarter saw more new connections than either of the earlier quarters, with 20.14m new connections, against 14.5m in the second and 16.3m in the first. Curiously, the 20m figure is almost exactly the same number as in both Q3 06 and Q3 05, when net additions totalled 20.4m and 20.2m respectively.
Top 20 European MNOs by Customers
If the normal seasonal pattern is repeated in Q4, then the final period of the year should see something between 25-30m new connections, enough to take penetration up to 110%. This reflects the fact that it is now quite commonplace to have more than one mobile account - one for work and another for domestic use. Add to this a small but growing number of machine to machine SIMs and a steadily increasing number of datacards or 3G USB devices, remove inactives where appropriate and clearly, there is no immediate prospect of a cessation of growth.
At the end of the second quarter, Europe's ten largest MNOs had a combined total of just over 270m customers, or nearly 40% of the total market. After a couple of minor restatements, that now emerges as 269m, or 39.6%. This number has crept up to just under 275m at the end of September, while the proportion has continued to drop, to 39.2%. This reflects a steady, if un-dramatic, broadening of the customer base across a growing number of operators. In fact, only one the ten largest MNOs increased its share of the European total (Kyivstar in Ukraine, by 0.6%) but even here, the rise reflects a bounce back from the poor second quarter performance, when the company lost 0.8%. Only two others - Vodafone's subsidiaries in Italy and Turkcell - maintained their overall market share (at 4.16% and 4.97% respectively) while all the others experienced a drop.
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