Research and Markets: Total Subscribers in Turkey Will Increase to a 76.7 Million in 2010

Research and Markets: Total Telecom Subscribers in Turkey Will Increase from a Projected 68.0 Million in 2008 to a Forecasted 76.7 Million Subscribers in 2010

Research and Markets ( http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/72dd00/4q_2008_turkey_mob) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "4Q 2008 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2010" to their offering.
This Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the Turkey wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 2Q2004 and ending in 2Q2008. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea (Turk Telekom). Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 4Q08 Turkey Mobile Forecast include:
- We have revised downward our subscriber growth figures for Turkey, given recent quarterly subscriber growth figures announced by operators. We are forecasting that total subscribers in Turkey will increase from our projected 68.0 million in 2008 (previously 69.1 million in 2008) to our forecasted 76.7 million subscribers in 2010 (previously 78.6 million subscribers in 2010).
- We are revising downward our previous projections of wireless penetration in Turkey. The level of wireless penetration in Turkey will increase from 91.8% in 2008 to 100% in 2010 (previously 102.4% in 2010).
- The largest operator, Turkcell, will continue to provide wireless services to a majority of subscribers in Turkey. In 2010, our models predict market shares (by subscribers) of the three operators - Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea (Turk Telekom) - will be 50.5%, 29.0% and 20.5% respectively.
Executive Summary:
Subscriber growth has slowed down in the last four quarters
+10.7% subscriber growth in Turkey in 2Q.2008
ARPU growth levels continue to register in negative territory but have not nosedived
ARPU growth down to -4.5% in 2Q.2008
So what is IEMR's Forecast?
Avea will see growing market share of subscribers, if execution is flawless
Let ARPU grow!
We are forecasting increasing EBITDA margins over the 2008-2010 period
Key Charts Covered:
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY04-CY10
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR -
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR -
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR -
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) -
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR -
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 05 - Mar 08
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR -
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR -
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR -
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) -
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR -
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
- Available only for Turkcell, and not Vodafone and Avea
Companies Mentioned:
- Turkcell
- Vodafone
- Avea (Turk Telekom)
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/72dd00/4q_2008_turkey_mob
SOURCE: Research and Markets