Turkey Telecommunications Report Q3 2008
During 2007, the number of Turkish mobile subscribers increased by 17% to reach 61.361mn. Growth in the fourth quarter of the year slowed to just 2.5%, down from 4% in the third quarter and 5.7% in the second quarter. Both Turkcell and Vodafone, which together account for over 80% of the market, saw a significantly reduced rate of subscriber growth in the final quarter of the year. The key question now is whether the market will continue to slow in the coming months or whether growth will pick up again. BMI maintains its belief that growth will slow during 2008 and the rest of the decade, as the market approaches saturation. Meanwhile, the circumstances surrounding the possible re-run of 3G licensing in Turkey remain uncertain (at the time of going to print, it had been announced that the Ministry of Communications had set November 2008 as the start date of the process). On the one hand, it appears as though no progress can be made until mobile number portability (MNP) has been introduced. On the other hand, there has already been a renewed expression of new interest from potential 3G licence applicants, including Kuwaiti operator Zain. It was reported in March 2008 that Zain’s chief executive Saad Al Barrak recently met with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the opportunity. In other news, it was reported in March 2008 that the Turkish government had confirmed plans to proceed with the floatation of a 15% stake in national wireline operator Türk Telekom by May 10 2008. The government is understood to have applied to the Capital Markets Board to proceed with an initial public offering for the operator. The Turkish government first indicated in early January 2008 that the state was hoping to earn US$2bn through the sale of a 15% stake in Türk Telekom. Türk Telekom is currently 45% owned by the state, with the remaining 55% held by the Dubai-based telecoms investment firm Saudi Oger. Telekom’s value has risen since the government sold 55% of the company to Saudi Oger for US$6.6bn in November 2005. Meanwhile, Turkey’s largest mobile operator Turkcell appears to be preparing itself for a further round of expansion into other international markets. In March 2008, the operator confirmed that it was in discussions for the purchase of shares in Syrian mobile operator Syriatel Mobile Telecom (Syriatel). The news followed the announcement that Turkcell’s wholly-owned mobile business in Northern Cyprus, Kibris Mobile Telekomunikasyon Limited Sirketi (Kibris Telekom or KKTCell) had been awarded a 3G infrastructure license. Finally, in April 2008, Turkcell’s board of directors announced that it was preparing to submit a proposal, either directly or through one of its subsidiaries, to the shareholders of the Belarusian Telecommunication Network (BeST), in order to purchase the majority of the company’s shares. Turkey continues to sit second from the bottom in our latest set of Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East; the lower score which it receives for country risk reflects both a worsening domestic political environment and increased concerns about the impact of global economic uncertainty on Turkey’s economy.
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