Infonetics Research: WiMAX feeling the recession pinch

Infonetics Research: Alvarion overtakes ALU, MOTO in mobile WiMAX; WiMAX feeling the recession pinch

Worldwide sales of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment and phones/Ultra Mobile PCs dropped 21% to $245 million in 3Q08 from 2Q08, and are expected to continue sliding through 2009 as the economic recession puts the squeeze on this early market, says Infonetics Research in a new report.

According to Infonetics' report, WiMAX and WiFi Mesh Network Equipment and Devices, fixed WiMAX already had reached its plateau prior to the economic downturn, having its third consecutive quarter of revenue decline. Mobile WiMAX overtook fixed WiMAX spending in the first quarter of 2008 and now makes up almost three-quarters of worldwide WiMAX equipment sales.

"With less cash available for network rollout -- and possibly less spectrum being auctioned until the current financial crisis passes -- WiMAX deployment will be inhibited for the next 12 months. Infonetics expects revenue growth to return to the overall WiMAX market in 2010, with growth being driven by mobile WiMAX, as a growing number of WiMAX networks are being rolled out based on 802.16e, even if initial services will be fixed CPE-based broadband. Market leader Alvarion's migration of its customer base from fixed to mobile WiMAX is a prime example of the preference service providers are showing for mobile WiMAX," said Richard Webb, wireless analyst for Infonetics Research.

Other highlights from the report:

-- In 3Q08, Alvarion overtook Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola in the mobile WiMAX market, having its best ever quarter for WiMAX revenue; the 3 revenue leaders together accounted for over 60% of worldwide mobile WiMAX revenue

-- Alvarion, Alcatel-Lucent, Motorola, and Samsung together have nearly 3/4 of all publicly announced mobile WiMAX customers

-- In the fixed WiMAX segment, Telsima and Airspan are neck and neck for the lead with almost identical revenue in 3Q08

-- While global recessions will likely cause some consumers and enterprises to postpone WiMAX adoption, demand for personal broadband services continues to grow

-- The number of worldwide fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers is expected to top 76 million in 2011, as demand, albeit slower, will continue through the recession

-- Asia Pacific leads by far in mobile WiMAX subscribers, accounting for roughly 2/3 of the worldwide total in 2008 driven by South Korea, India, and Pakistan

-- The Sprint-Clearwire WiMAX merger (Xohm) closed in December 2008, paving the way for potentially rapid WiMAX subscriber growth in North America

-- Developing countries are the engine for WiMAX market growth, with hotbeds of activity in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Central and Latin America, and emerging parts of Asia Pacific

Infonetics' report provides market size, market share, and forecasts for fixed WiMAX base stations and CPE; mobile WiMAX base stations, CPE, NICs, and ASN-gateways; mobile WiMAX phones and Ultra Mobile PCs; indoor and outdoor mesh network nodes; and fixed and mobile WiMAX and WiMAX VoIP subscribers.

Companies tracked include Airspan, Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Aperto Networks, BelAir Networks, Cisco, Firetide, Huawei, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens Networks, Nortel, POSDATA, Proxim, Redline Communications, Samsung, Strix Systems, Telsima, Tropos Networks, Vecima, ZTE and others.

Infonetics also publishes a WiMAX Continuous Research Service (CRS), a series of reports delivered on an ongoing basis throughout the year with analyst opinion on important technology shifts, noteworthy regional activity, key product announcements, significant M&A activity, and other timely topics.