Forecast: Tiny Mobile WiMAX, LTE Penetration by 2013
Mobile WiMAX and LTE will represent only a “tiny” portion of total mobile subscriptions in 2013, with GSM/EDGE/GPRS expected to account for more than 55 percent of the total 4.8 billion subscriptions, according to In-Stat .
In fact, HSPA may turn into 802.16e WiMAX’s true competitor, and also may delay LTE roll-outs, the research firm says.
In 2008, the road to wireless 4G cleared a bit, with ultra-mobile broadband left publicly by the roadside, narrowing the path to two technologies: Long Term Evolution and WiMAX, says In-Stat. Both LTE Advanced and 802.16m WiMAX are being specially crafted to offer 100 Mbps mobile throughput and 1 Gbps stationary throughput.
The In-Stat report comes as the WiMAX Forum announces plans to set up an applications lab at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi.
As TMCnet Contributing Editor Shamila Janakiraman reports, this Delhi facility will be the third such lab in the world, along with set-ups in Taiwan and the United States, and is being established at a time when WiMAX looks set to take off in a big way. Projections have called for the Indian WiMAX market, including devices, to be worth $ 13 billion by 2012.
Ultra Mobile Broadband, or “UMB,” is the brand name for a project within 3GPP2 standards group to improve the CDMA2000 mobile phone standard for next generation applications and requirements. Commercialization now is deemed unlikely as Qualcomm, its main developer, 3GPP2 and major CDMA carriers are concentrating on LTE instead.
“Mobile WiMAX effectively came on the scene in 2006 with South Korea’s WiBro; the earliest commercial LTE deployment will be in 2009,” says Gemma Tedesco, In-Stat analyst. “Overall, In-Stat expects that mobile WiMAX will ultimately outpace LTE over the next few years due to timing of network roll-outs.”
The success of the Sprint-Clearwire mobile WiMAX roll-out is expected to have a huge effect on whether or not large worldwide operators will roll out mobile WiMAX. Still, 4G is not expected to achieve wide scale penetration any time soon.
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